How much will religion factor into Mitt Romney winning The White House?

Alan Christensen ‏ @alanchr5412: how much will religion factor into Mitt Romney winning The @whitehouse?


I am totally apolitical. Since John Adams the President has abused the power allocated him in the Constitution. So it’s a joke. The last legally declared war in 1941 and yet in the past year we’ve bombed no less than five different countries and we are at wars in two. All of this by “executive order” which has dubious claims to being constitutionally valid.

So for me its game. Who will win? Who will lose? Why? What are the best strategies. Whether Romney or Obama will be better for me is pretty clear. Nether will be. Not a single President since I’ve been born has improved my life and the winner of this election won’t either.

But religion will not factor into Romney. Think about it. He won the Republican primaries, where if religion was going to have any effect at all, it would have an effect there. It didn’t. So that’s over.

Everything will hinge on the stock market between now and November. If the stock market is up, people will interpret that to mean the economy is improving so lets stay on the current path. Then Obama wins.

If the stock market struggles, or even struggles in just October, then Romney wins. People will interpret a struggling stock market as meaning we need a new leader in office, one with experience with business and economics.

A small factor which could shift things if we are close to a tie is the VP candidates. My guess is there is a lot of back-room maneuvering happening right now. Obama would love to replace Biden with Hilary Clinton. But will she take that chance? Who knows. And there’s really no other Democrats he can pick.

As for Romney. If he picks a Latino like Marco Rubio or a big charismatic personality like Chris Chrystie, then that might change the rules of the game a little. His only other real choice is Rob Portman from Ohio who will bring to him a crucial swing state but I don’t think that pick is strong enough to move fence sitters.

So that’s where we are in this position, in this game.