How Did Jeffrey Epstein Make His Money?: A Case Study on Occam’s Razor and Conspiracy Numbers

Everybody loves a good conspiracy.

Was Epstein killed? How did he make his money? Which evil billionaire has the most to lose?

Was Epstein even a billionaire?

Two days ago, nobody has ever heard of a “hyoid bone.”

Now we know: “Only 27% of hangings break the hyoid bone.”

Thank you, Dr. Google. Everyone is an expert.


This entire story is a great example of two principles that I like to use when making decisions or figuring out situations:

A) OCCAM’S RAZOR: the simplest answer is probably the right answer

B) CONSPIRACY NUMBERS: how many things have to conspire in order for your theory to be correct? The theory with the lowest “conspiracy number” is probably correct.

I use these ideas, plus my very limited understanding of the various moving pieces, to explain how Jeffrey Epstein made his money and why this was a suicide…

I think we first have to look at what we actually know:

He probably wasn’t a billionaire

If someone has $100 million or more they can easily say, “I’m a billionaire,” because their lifestyle will not be any different at all from a billionaires.

You can buy a 40,000-foot house, ride private planes all day and night, have an island, etc. for all much less than a $100 million.

Important to remember: Anyone with $100 million or more can say, “I’m a billionaire,” and nobody would know.

The reason I suspect he was not a billionaire is:

1. His financial documents when he was looking to make bail said he had $559 million, a very specific amount. Maybe he has some money hidden away but probably not that much more.

2. The house he lived in in New York City was a gift from his billionaire friend, Leslie Wexner. Billionaires don’t need other billionaires giving them gifts.

So now the question is: how did he make any money at all?

The theory is that he was a hedge fund manager or a money manager of some sort. That’s what he claimed.

This is definitely NOT TRUE.

All we actually know is that 30 years ago he helped billionaire Leslie Wexner with some philanthropy deals and perhaps other financial advice.

Here’s what we also know:

1. There is ZERO evidence he ever tried to raise money

Hedge funds need to raise lots and lots of money.

When a big hedge fund raises money they need big investors. They need people working for them to manage those clients.

They need to hire marketing teams to set up meetings. The meetings are attended by a dozen or so people who are involved in making the decision.

To be a billionaire hedge fund manger you probably need to be managing at least $5 billion for over a decade.

Thousands of people would be involved to raise that kind of money. Marketers, employees, employees of the investors, people who did due diligence, background checks, etc.

Zero people have stated that they were involved in any aspect of fundraising.

2. There is ZERO evidence that he actually invested in anything

This is the law: Every fund with more than $100 million in assets has to disclose to the SEC every three months what stocks they hold.

The SEC has zero information from Jeffrey Epstein and all the top hedge funds — over a billion — are accounted for.

What if he invested in real estate or private companies? Again, with that kind of money, hundreds or thousands of people would have to know.

Has anyone stated they know of any investments? Zero.

3. What if he invested secretly through a third party?

Well, then the third party would know. There’s no evidence that any third party invested for him.

And it’s still not that easy. Because you are required to know your investor by law. It’s hard to invest secretly.

A great example is Yasser Arafat.

After he died, it turned out he had invested in two companies in the U.S.: Bowlmor Lanes (a bowling alley!) and a software company called Vaultus (MY COMPANY!).

We didn’t know it was Arafat. He invested through a third party.

But that’s all he could get away with. Maybe $4 million worth. It’s very hard to invest a large amount of money secretly.


With everything in life, the simplest answer is probably the most accurate.

When I first thought about this I thought:

He probably pitched rich foreign billionaires (sheikhs, dictators, etc.) and said, “If you put money in my fund, you can have access to my island, and by the way, lots of young girls on my island and it’s all VERY SECURE AND PRIVATE.”

But then I thought, that’s the stupid answer.

Running a hedge fund is hard. Raising money is hard (see above). And these dictators could care less about investing.

The hedge fund was just a story so people could explain why they were wiring him money.

Instead, he made his money from what I will call “Club Epstein.”

He set up the island, the procurement of young girls, the facade of respectability, the protection from government (through his massive connections and philanthropy presence).

And *wink* you can do anything you want on the island.

(Epstein’s island)

THAT was his product.

That is obviously not an easy product to build. And it’s a product that was apparently in demand by at least a few wealthy — or connected — and corrupt billionaires, royalty, world leaders, etc.

He sold it to all takers.

Let’s say “membership” to Club Epstein was $20 million.

Every single dictator in the world can afford that. Almost every single royal person in the world can afford that.

Various foreign corrupt businessmen can afford that without thinking of it.

30 members and Epstein has $600 million.

That’s how he made his money.


Why would billionaires, dictators, royalty, etc. join a high-priced club?

Answer: Because they couldn’t get the girls themselves.

Or they couldn’t get it with their privacy intact. Or they would be violating their religion. Or they were married and had a public image to live up to.

Or they were afraid to get arrested. Or they didn’t want to deal with all the other issued involved.

They wanted to be able to pretend they were going to a “philanthropy meeting” (part of the club) or a meeting of intellectuals (Dershowitz, Minsky, etc.) on Epstein’s island and *wink wink* have girls show up at the after-party.

Why Epstein? Can’t you get this in Thailand or other sex industry countries?

Epstein hung out with presidents, country leaders, philanthropists, etc.

For decades you could have reasonable excuses to meet Epstein (not after his Florida jail time but before). But if you are a prominent sheikh, it’s a bit suspicious to your inner circle if you go to Bangkok 10 times a year.

Why didn’t Epstein get caught earlier?

The obvious reason.

The CIA approached him at some point and said, “We will protect you as best we can if you give us all video and photos of everyone on the island.”

And he said, “Deal!”

Prince Andrew is all over Wikileaks. Prince Andrew is all over this Epstein story.

All of these guys that have come up in other investigations seem to have spent a lot of time with Epstein.

So clearly the CIA was interested in his clientele. They don’t stay interested from afar. The CIA makes deals. Epstein would have had no reason to refuse the deal.

But then why was he prosecuted in Florida?

Was he? He spent 18 months in jail (nothing) and was protected from all future prosecution.

This deal was so pro-Epstein that Acosta, the prosecutor who put together the deal, had to actually resign from being secretary of labor.

Nobody can understand why Acosta made a deal this good for Epstein.

In fact, Epstein’s main case right now would be that this would be “double jeopardy” and he was protected from prosecution by the Florida case and the way Acosta worded it.

Epstein assumed he could not be prosecuted in N.Y.C. because of this. There’s been some debate on this but nothing conclusive.

Which is why the Fed was going through more measures: uncovering documents, raiding his island, etc. They didn’t have any new evidence to show that this was a new case and not just a rehash of the 2007 case.

Did he kill himself?

There are three possible answers: Yes (but then how?). No (he was killed). And “he’s not dead.”

All three involve conspiracy. Rule No. 1: The more that one has to conspire for something to happen, the less likely it is true.

For instance, “he was killed” involves the extra complication of a killer and someone hiring a killer and the mechanics of how the killing would happen and not be noticed in an autopsy.

Almost impossible. So he was not killed.

And, for fun, is he alive? They used a fake body. They falsified the autopsy, etc. Again, too many complications.

So the easiest answer is yes. He killed himself.

Why would he kill himself if he thought he was going to go free?

A) Prison conditions at the MCC facility have been known to be horrible.

(Drawing of a prison cell from 2018 when MCC was being accused of having horrible conditions)

B) He knew his life would never be the same

Eventually they were going to do a deal with him (even if they couldn’t prosecute him) that would be: “Give us all of your money and then we will let you go,” and he probably couldn’t handle that.

C) More information is coming out every day

If he wasn’t killed inside the facility, there’s a reasonable chance he would be killed, tortured, whatever, outside jail, with no financial resources to protect himself.

The Fed is currently looking for his diaries. Perhaps there were things in there that he just didn’t want to face. Who knows the inner mind of someone so corrupt?

People say that it is almost impossible to kill yourself in the MCC facility. How would he do it?

BUT: there is evidence in the past few decades that bribing guards have had results.

Despite being one of the most important prisons in the U.S., as recently as 2016, a wealthy prisoner paid $45,000 to a guard for alcohol, cigarettes, and a cell phone.

That prisoner (and guard) were caught.

The difference in this case is that the CIA had a vested interest (not being a conspiracy theorist here. This is obvious as stated above) and many, many billionaires around the world had a vested interest in making payments and making it easy.

A bribe explains all of the unusual things around his suicide. He wasn’t on suicide watch. Have the most over-worked guards on duty slip him something he can hang himself with wait a bit.

Again, why would he kill himself?

  • It wasn’t 100% clear the “double jeopardy” argument would work
  • He might get killed in a much worse fashion
  • He couldn’t handle all the information coming out. ALL the trust, his entire persona, was going to get flushed down the tubes. He maybe couldn’t handle that
  • He was going to be wiped out anyway and his self worth was his net worth
  • Conditions (rat- and cockroach-infested) in the facility probably dehumanized him and his thought process
  • He probably figured a life in prison, where he would be repeatedly harassed and beaten by other prisoners, was not worth it and he didn’t want to take the chance when he had the opportunity (encouraged by his “friends”) to do it himself.

This is not about any secret knowledge I have about Epstein. In fact, the fact that I DO NOT have knowledge about him despite being around hedge fund managers for 20 years gives me a lot of insight into this.

The only knowledge I have is:

  • The rules about disclosure when you have a lot of money invested
  • The rules about “know your investor” when you are raising money (my experience with Arafat secretly investing in a company I started but it wasn’t revealed until after his death)
  • Some knowledge about the CIA
  • Similarities between this and the Madoff Ponzi scheme (which I had a lot of knowledge about)
  • Public information about MCC (the jail).

And a strong belief that the Occam’s Razor — the idea that the simplest answer is usually correct — works. It always has worked for me.


  • Epstein made all of his money from “Club Epstein” described above
  • The CIA helped him out quite a bit
  • He killed himself
  • There were many incentives for corrupt and despicable billionaires and world leaders to use Epstein’s services as opposed to alternatives.

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